Take Positions

The week was eventful and that is putting it mildly. Globally, we saw the Iran deal getting called off by the US. Oil prices predictably spiked. Several domestic banks reported their worst numbers in recent history. Provisioning norms enforced by the RBI seem to have taken a toll.

The political fever reached a high almost touching the point of delirium. The polarized media lost its emotional bearings at the very thought of an inimical electoral verdict. Defensive stocks became all the more expensive. Small caps and mid-caps got further sold down. Bad news and rumours were brutally punishing stock prices. But, there were silver linings too. The early pre-monsoon showers were generous and well spread out. The south clearly is going to have a very good monsoon. Sowing will probably be the highest in Indian history. Agriculture seems to be in the middle of a great phase of change.

How does one bet in the middle of all these trends? A simple approach would be to step aside, focus on industries, sectors and companies which are set to benefit from the way the world is changing. Ignore past performance and focus on how the performance grid is moving. Take positions where performance will soon emerge. Lie in wait. Easier said than done, right?

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